Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.960746e-05 0.000106 0.000124 0.000144 0.000166 0.000189 0.000216
2025-01-26 6.523492e-05 0.000086 0.000109 0.000138 0.000171 0.000208 0.000252
2025-02-02 5.473084e-05 0.000078 0.000105 0.000139 0.000180 0.000227 0.000284
2025-02-09 4.479747e-05 0.000069 0.000099 0.000138 0.000186 0.000243 0.000314
2025-02-16 4.026173e-05 0.000066 0.000099 0.000143 0.000198 0.000265 0.000350
2025-02-23 3.478566e-05 0.000061 0.000096 0.000144 0.000206 0.000282 0.000380
2025-03-02 2.821571e-05 0.000053 0.000088 0.000138 0.000205 0.000287 0.000395
2025-03-09 2.346956e-05 0.000048 0.000084 0.000136 0.000207 0.000296 0.000414
2025-03-16 2.007523e-05 0.000044 0.000080 0.000135 0.000211 0.000307 0.000437
2025-03-23 1.759730e-05 0.000041 0.000079 0.000136 0.000217 0.000322 0.000463
2025-03-30 1.493123e-05 0.000038 0.000076 0.000135 0.000220 0.000331 0.000483
2025-04-06 1.217351e-05 0.000034 0.000071 0.000131 0.000219 0.000336 0.000498
2025-04-13 1.067728e-05 0.000032 0.000071 0.000134 0.000229 0.000356 0.000532
2025-04-20 8.065724e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000129 0.000226 0.000359 0.000547
2025-04-27 6.775693e-06 0.000026 0.000064 0.000130 0.000233 0.000374 0.000576
2025-05-04 5.431056e-06 0.000023 0.000061 0.000129 0.000236 0.000385 0.000599
2025-05-11 4.916602e-06 0.000023 0.000062 0.000134 0.000247 0.000408 0.000639
2025-05-18 4.120887e-06 0.000022 0.000061 0.000135 0.000254 0.000424 0.000669
2025-05-25 2.937149e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000130 0.000250 0.000425 0.000680
2025-06-01 2.180620e-06 0.000016 0.000053 0.000127 0.000251 0.000432 0.000698
2025-06-08 1.672023e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000126 0.000254 0.000442 0.000722
2025-06-15 1.340928e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000127 0.000260 0.000457 0.000751
2025-06-22 9.760787e-07 0.000013 0.000048 0.000126 0.000262 0.000466 0.000773